What are current and future drivers of water stress in Central Asia?
Socio-hydrologic findings from Kyrgyzstan's Naryn River, headwaters to the
Syr Darya and central source to the Aral Sea, suggest current water stress is due to a combination of infrastructure maintenance, farming practices and water access, while future water issues may be confounded by shifts in river flow timing and amount.
This work is part of the CHARIS project housed at the National Snow and Ice Data Center and is supported by USAID.
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In summer 2016, Alice and colleagues completed a field season in the Tien Shan mountains of Kyrgyzstan to collect socio-hydrologic data allowing them to better understand climate and socio-politically induced water vulnerabilities in Central Asia. The resulting peer-reviewed, open-access publication summarizes their results.
Research summary
STUDY SITE and DATA COLLECTION:
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The study site and data collection plan spanned 520km of the Naryn River basin, from the glacial headwaters at Petrov Glacier and Kumtor Mine to the lower lying plains and Toktogul Reservoir.
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Water sampling for hydrochemistry included groundwater, snow, ice and glacial outflow as well as river water itself (refer legend at right) across a 4200m elevation gradient.
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Surveyed communities (green triangles) contrasted upstream "natural flow" communities at Naryn Town, Dostuk and Kazarman with downstream communities adjacent to Toktogul Reservoir that were re-located due to dam construction.
RESULTS:
The study found that both surface water and groundwater are heavily reliant on melt-sourced origins (snow and ice), making the basin's water supply uncertain in the context of a warming climate.
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While water amount is climate-sensitive, water access is a more pressing issue for Naryn basin communities. Current water stress is primarily a function of water management and access issues resulting from the clunky transition from Soviet era large-scale agriculture to post-Soviet small-plot farming.
Yurt camp adjacent to Son Kul, a high elevation summer grazing ground for nomadic herders, and part of the Naryn basin study. Photo: Alice Hill